Ukraine - The Great War All Over Again

It's time to have a discussion on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This article by 'the Prof' is a helpful starter. We're witnessing a tragic loss of life, both civilian and military, taking place. Opinion is divided on responsibility and satisfactory outcomes. It has multiple interlinked causes (territorial expansion/defensiveness, religious hegemony, cultural division, corrupt politicians, Western interference) and, one prays, it will reach a conclusion soon.

Post by Clive (aka Prof Generaliter)

The more I read about the war in Ukraine, the more struck I am by the similarities, both political and military with WW1.

There were many reasons why the Great War happened, one of the main reasons was how a newly united and dynamic Germany, felt it wasn't being treated as an equal by the other "Great" powers, especially Britain.

It felt, and the Kaiser felt, that Britain failed to give Germany the respect its military triumphs and rapid industrialization deserved. After all, its army was seen as the best, most efficient and well-led in Europe, its economy was poised to overtake the UK's and domestically its population was enjoying increasing wealth. It had also embarked on a programme of shipbuilding with the intention of challenging the Royal Navy. As it turned out this was probably a mistake, as it alarmed the UK government and pushed it into a closer relationship with France and Russia.

Germany felt it deserved its place in the sun and was determined to create a large overseas empire. At the same time, it was also determined to develop its sphere of influence in central Europe, creating a trade alliance to keep Britain out of Europe, and damaging its economy. With the intention of developing this trade alliance further into an early prototype version of the EU, a Mitteleuropa, under its control and 'protection'.

Not everything was rosy however, the political agreement put in place by Bismarck following German unification was fracturing and under pressure to reform and there was an increasing wealth gap between the richest and poorest.

And at the top of German society was the Kaiser, a weak, unpredictable man, viewed with contempt by large sections of the ruling class.

He also happened to hate the UK, although he did love his grandmother Queen Victoria. But he felt slighted by his British relatives and blamed his British mother for the injury he experienced at birth to his arm which affected him the whole of his life.

His relationship with his parents was never a good one.

There had been several crises in the run-up to the war. The Moroccan crisis of 1905 was one of the most significant. Here the Kaiser, with his usual bombast, fermented a dispute between France and Germany over French influence in Morocco.

The intention was to force France into such a humiliating climbdown, that war between the two countries would be inevitable. The Prussian military believed it had only a narrow window of time before a rearming France and Russia were strong enough to encircle Germany.

In addition, the German military was concerned at the speed of Russian rearmament following their humiliation in the Japan - Russian war of 1904 to 1905 and was determined to bring the two countries to war whilst Germany still had a clear military advantage.

Britain however had no intention of allowing their new Allie to be treated this way and intervened.

The Kaiser backed down and Germany felt  humiliated.

The German (in reality Prussian) military was determined never to allow this to happen again and when war came the Kaiser effectively found himself bypassed and forced into declaring war with no other option open to him.

Thereafter he became a peripheral figure during the war, wheeled out to encourage the troops and fed propaganda about how the war was going, like the rest of Germany. Losing was a major shock and cause for disbelief for many Germans as right to the end, they were being told that they were winning.

So how is this anything like the Ukraine - Russian war of today.

Russia also felt humiliated and treated with disrespect by NATO and its allies following the collapse of the USSR and the breakup of the Russian empire.

Putin grew to hate the West, with this not being helped when Bush invaded Iraq in the face of Russian objections.

Unfortunately, Russia found itself unable to do anything about it, such was the state of its military. Putin was determined to recreate Russian greatness, assert Russian control of the old Russian republics and humiliate the West.

And to a large extent succeeded, through his invasion of Georgia, his destruction of Chechnya and the humiliation of Obama and his disappearing red lines in Syria.

The successful invasion of Crimea and the weak response of the Western Governments seem to have convinced Putin that the West was finished and Russia could do what it wanted.

Putin cultivated an image of a strong, determined hardman. A person not to be trifled with.  

What other similarities with 1914 are there? Both Russia and Germany felt and feel they are not respected. Both felt the need to counter this by 'decisive' military action, although, in reality, the Kaiser was incapable of decisive action of any sort and Putin has avoided direct confrontation with Nato. 

Both felt they had a right to their country commanding a 'sphere of influence' where they could effectively act as they wished.

And both put their trust in a well-equipped military and new weapon systems. Bayern class battleships (equivalent to the British Dreadnought class) in Germany, and new tanks and 5th generation fighters, along with hypersonic missiles by Russia.

Not to mention new, ferociously destructive nuclear weapons.

Both Russia and Germany were extremely confident in their invasion plans, with each indulging in a significant gamble. With Germany, it was the invasion of Belgium, and with Russia, it was the hope that the invasion would be quick and the local population happy with the change of government, that everything would be concluded before the West reacted.

Both gambles failed and blew up in the faces of the aggressor. Both the Kaiser and Putin were being fed what they wanted to hear, not what they needed to hear.

And this had an impact on decision making.

And just as the German Bayern class battleships ultimately had no impact on the course of the war, Russian new wonder weapons have failed to impress, with the nuclear threat effectively ignored.

So far at least it would appear Russians don't want Russia turned to glass. Who'd have thought?

And the wars themselves? Both bogged down into an artillery battle, with the soldiers hiding in well-dug and laid-out defensive positions, with any gains made at a huge cost in human life.

Otherwise known as trench warfare.

And the parallels between Verdun and Bakhmut battle's are clear to see. Two fights to the death in tactically unimportant locations, with the aim to 'bleed your opponent white'.

So men are being fed into the military meat grinder. Lives are being lost and gains made are minimal. And all to suit the ambition of two, vain and not-very-impressive men, who have allowed countless lives to be wasted because of perceived imaginary slights.

Have we learnt nothing?

On the assumption of a Ukrainian victory, I hope at least we will have learnt the lessons of 1918 and the cost of humiliating the defeated, which was made painfully clear when the failings of Versailles were exposed by the recommencement of military action in 1939.

If not, well the costs this time could be immeasurably greater.